Countdown to busto...

Poker blog 3/2/2013, Saturday

Got my ass kicked last night at the Sands. I deserved it too, I played like a donk. Got a seat as soon as I got there, sat down all wound up from the drive, the coffee, the Diet Coke. About the second had I get pocket KK in the BB and UTG+1 raises it to $11 and gets two callers before getting back to me. For a brief moment I think of re-raising to isolate, then either greed or fear slow me down and I just call. I do remember thinking “it's a raised pot already, so my opponents hand ranges should be pretty good”. Well, that's not how it turned out.

The flop fell 337 and UTG+2 bet $35. MP folded and I think about calling, then shove for $86 figuring I wasn't folding to a 3-bet anyway. Then UTG+1 re-raises to $186 and I knew I was in trouble. UTG+2 calls and at showdown UTG+1 has 3-5 off suit.

The table was much looser than I expected.

Lesson learned:

1. Never assume anything about the playing styles of 1-2NLHE players. Poker at 12NL is small stakes for some players and an $11 call can be ATC.
2. I'm not sure why I didn't 3-bet pre-flop. Greed or fear. I need to think slower and play more traditionally. If I 3-bet to $35 pre-flop and still lost to 3-5 off suit at least I could blame the other player.

I lost another bit pot with A-To. Limp pre-flop, flop was 689. I had a gut shot and two overs. And the guy to my right had 5-7 and flopped the straight. I kept calling thinking I had outs and when an 8 fell on the river I though I hit the straight. I blew another $45 drawing dead.

I don't know what I could have done better other than not to misread the board.
Dropped two buy-ins then drove home.

Observations on draws in Limit Holdem

   I was at the Sands Bethlehem today playing 3-6 LHE. This is my third visit and I've netted a small profit across 3 sessions. I've been trying to use pot odds to made decisions about when to chase flushes, straights, and full houses which means I have been counting the number of bets pre-flop and using the following odds to determine when to chase:

Flush: 4:1

Straight: 5:1
Full house or gut shot straight: 11:1 (4 outs)

   Since the game is low stakes, the pot size pre-flop is usually 3 to 6 bets (big blinds) if no one raises which is about half of the hands. In these cases there is typically enough money in the pot to chase a flush and straight but not an inside straight. If someone raises pre-flop, most of the limpers who acted before him will call, hence pots are often much larger in the range of 6 to 10 bets. If anyone bets the flop the pot will almost always be large enough to chase a gut shot. My conclusion is that raising pre-flop provides better pot odds for chasing more hands and the chance of getting sucked out on.

   This lead me to think about how to use this to my advantage. If I am in the BB and there are three limpers and the SB calls, then the pot is only 5 bets pre-flop (assuming I check). If I look down at a hand like 7c8d (off suited connectors) then I really need to hit the flop hard in order to continue after the flop. If there are one or two over cards on the flop then my had is probably worthless. But say I flop a gut shot like 5s9hKd. If there was 11 bets in the pot I could probably draw to my straight profitably.

   Here's my thought, if I raised pre-flop in the BB I would certainly get 4 callers and the pot now becomes 10 bets. If I check my gutshot on the flop and someone bets I immediately get pot odds to draw to my gut shot straight. At the same time anyone with any part of the flop gets odds to call. Someone who hits bottom pair on that 59K flop has 5 outs (2 more 5's for a set, and 3 other cards to make two pair) and can also call.

Back in the Saddle again

Well, I made it back to Blackhawk today and I left with a decent profit. I feel good because I think I didn't make any bad mistakes. There is only one hand I regret folding and statistically I still think folding was the right thing to do. I received the mighty 4-2 a few times during my 4 hours of play, but the situation always forced me to fold (I couldn't even limp). That is until I was BB, got dealt 4-2 off suit and was the pot was limped by 3 or 4 other players. I checked my option and and the flop came down 35T rainbow. A $10 bet from a player in early position and one caller made the pot almost $30 when it folded back to me. I was getting 3 to 1 on a call, but only had 8 outs, that's like 17% just to see the turn and I doubted I would get a free look at the river if I didn't make my straight on the turn. I folded and the turn was a 6 which made my straight. There were probably implied odds, but I'm too tight a player to deal with the greater variance when playing implied odds.

I also had pocket AA one hand, popped it to $10 preflop and got two callers. The flop came A26 with two hearts. It went check – check to me and I be the pot, about $30. I took down the pot and did not feel like I lost any value. I now kinda feel that big pairs should be played in a way such as not to loose a big pot. The saying “Win a small pot or loose a big one” rings true.

I made my profit for the day with J9 crubs in the hole. A limp pot again and we saw JKQ with the K and Q of clubs. I check-call a $10 bet and see a river 7 of clubs. I check – raise all in (about $40 more) from a $30 bet and get called. An Ace on the river did not change my hand and I raked in $190 pot. The other player said he had the Ace of clubs. I play another orbit and then quit for the day.

Some thoughts on what went different this week. I took some time off since my big loss a few weeks ago. I did not take advantage of the free drinks. In other words I did not get loaded on coffee like I sometimes do. I was very patient, and fairly tight. I laid down most of my draws. I did not play too long. I choose to quit while I was ahead instead of quitting when I busted. I'm still way down overall, but I got some confidence back.

Next week is the HPT. I'm going to splurge for a $120 buy in to a satellite to a qualifier to the main event. Yes, that is three tourneys if I make it that far.

Smal blind considerations..

   Low stakes tourney Tuesday. I finished fifth out of 30+ players. No money. Pocket aces helped get me there when I flopped a set and turned a boat. The 8 on the turn made my boat and made trips for my opponent. Payday. But it wasn't enough. I misplayed two hands (at least). Pocket queens I raised pre-flop to $10k (blinds are 2K – 4k, 6 handed) and I get one caller, the big blind. Flop comes 10 high and I shove for my last $11k. I wanted a call and I talked him out of it. He tells me later he had pocket sevens. I should have kept my mouth shut.

   Now, the hand of interest. Last hand for me. Blinds are 4k-8k, 5 handed. I've counted my chips and I have $24k. I fold my BB to an all-in and now I'm SB with $4k in the pot and $16 behind and I'm short stack at the table. It folds to me and I'd only have $12k behind if I call, $16 if I fold and I look at J7 off suit in the SB. I decide to shove expecting a fold from the BB but the BB wakes up with KJ off suit and insta-calls. He was a pretty tight player so I think he would have folded any marginal hand. I retrospect I think a pre-flop limp and then a shove on the flop would have worked better. Shoving pre-flop lets him think he has 5 cards to come and make his hand. That makes for a pretty wide calling range pre-flop. If I waited and shoved on the flop I could win it right there (assuming he missed the flop 1 in 3 times) and with only 2 cards to come his calling range was pretty small. If he did hit the flop I was beat in any case (shoving pre-flop or on the flop). I guess what I am trying to say is he is more likely to fold after the flop than before the flop.

Low Stakes success

   Another low stakes tourney last night. I didn't raise every hand I was in, but I did raise many of them. It seems position is important in pre-flop raises. In early position only raise to narrow the field and be prepared to call a re-raise from late position. That means big hands and deep stacks.
   In late position its much easier to raise a limp pot. Most of the players will call any reasonable raise which puts me in excellent position after the flop with a good size pot to win. Often times one of the limp/callers pre-flop will lead out (out of position) which can be very profitable if I think my hand is still good. It can also be profitable to draw to a hand if there is at least one other caller after the flop. Position is so good.
   To make a long story short I made some good hands early and built up a good stack. They broke our table and I got moved to one of the final two tables. Then I got lucky. Blinds were 400-800 and I was in early position with AQo and raised $2600 pre-flop. Two callers. Great flop, AQT and I lead out for $2000, followed by two all-ins! Of course I call and find out I'm against KJ (straight) and KT (gut shot). The turn is a blank and KJ starts celebrating...until the Q hits the river! I finished third, not enough to make the money, but I earned some respect, for myself.

Record tilt

  --- The Micros Redux ---
Well I guess I'm still on tilt from busting on Saturday at the cash game. This was a low stakes tournament. I decided I would change my game. No limping, If I was in a hand I was raising pre-flop. I played three hands.
    Blinds started at 25-50, KJ suited in late position I raise to $150 and get 3 limpers to call pre-flop. Flop is 667 and one of the blinds leads out with a bet. I fold. I fold a hand or two then I get AT off suit and again pop it to $150 and get two callers. I wiff the flop but still c-bet and get popped from a player after me. Muck. I fold 5 or 6 hand and pick up AK clubs. I'm a bit steamy and pop it to $300 and still get two callers. The flop is QT6 rainbow with one club. Not too bad so I open for another $300 and get popped to $1000 by a LAG who I remember from an earlier tourney that kept showing his bluffs. I wasn't folding to this guy. With only about $5k behind I was ready to call a large turn bet with a shove. I blank the river and check to the LAG who shoves. I call and he flips over pocket Queens to make a set. The river... another queen for quads. I almost thought It was a Jack and I sucked out.
    I was busto in before the first level passed. Reminds me of Chase Berger from the Micros At the Aussie Millions; “Shuffle up and deal... and we have out first causality”.

Retirement

   Well, I lost it. All of it. I headed up to GG this morning with the hope of making back some of my losses. That didn't happen. I lost two buy-ins, everything I brought. Time to reconsider my options. I won't go into specific hands except the first and last one. The last one not because it's a bad beat, but because it demonstrates something I learned today. I started out losing a big hand, but I think I played okay. I get pocket AA, raised to $10 and got two callers. Flop comes with 2 hearts and I lead out again for $30. One caller. Turn is another heart. The caller is first to act and bets into me. I fold, he flips over Q8 hearts. Good laydown, I'm thinking clearly and I made him pay for his flush draw. The next couple of hours were up and down then everything started to go south. I tightened up. Limped with big hands, called with long shot draws. I call it desperation. I kept looking at my stack dwindling and seeing everyone else winning with junk. I had to make something happen. I should have quit when I started feeling that way.
   In restrospect my mistakes were obvious. I failed to raise my big hands enough to get the junk hands out. I also called too much trying to win a big pot. I also got desperate and gambled too much.
   Last hand of the night. Pocket AA again in early position. I small raise, $6 knowing it was too little to push many hands out. I wanted to build a pot, win big. Flop is J95 two diamonds. I bet $16. He calls and the turn is a blank. I fire again, another $15 and he calls again. I knew on the flop I was pot committed as I only had about $40 behind. The river is another 9 and I shove in my last $26. He calls and flips over J9 for a full boat. I should have walked away hours ago when I started getting desperate.
  I told my wife I was busto. I now think I know where I stand at live NLHE, I suck. I guess I'll retire from live poker for a while. My losses for the last few weeks are just too much. I'll still play recreationally, maybe more tournaments too. But my plans on supplementing my income from poker are gone.